AFL Season Preview – Part 1

Adelaide

Ins:

Curtly Hampton (GWS), Dean Gore (Geelong), Paul Seedsman (Collingwood), Troy Menzel (Carlton), Wayne Milera (2015 Draft: Pick 11)

Outs:

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong), Sam Kerridge (Carlton), Brent Reilly (retired), James Podsiadly (retired)

Last year:

H/A – 7th Position (13 wins, 8 losses) Finals – 6th (1 win, 1 loss)

Best & Fairest – Patrick Dangerfield

Leading goal scorer – Eddie Betts (63 goals)

Big Question:

Will Patrick Dangerfield’s departure leave a hole too large to be replaced, or can the Crows cover for the loss of their superstar?

For – The Crows will cover for Dangerfield

Losing Patrick Dangerfield will hurt the Adelaide Crows. Unfortunately for Crows fans there are no denying the facts. Only Matt Priddis, Nat Fyfe and Josh Kennedy (Sydney) won more contested possessions last year then Dangerfield. Much of Adelaide’s top three ranking in contested ball last year was due to the Dangerfield effect. However, life after Dangerfield is not all gloom and doom and one would be silly to write the Crows off just yet.

The Crows have one of the most dynamic forward lines in the competition. Last year they were fourth best in converting an inside 50 entry into a goal. Walker (59 goals in 2015) Jenkins (46 goals) and Lynch (32 goals) compliment each other perfectly, throw in Betts (63 goals – equal second for Coleman), Charlie Cameron and Troy Menzel and you have a top-shelf forward line.

The defensive end is still young, but with continued development the likes of Talia, Laird and Brodie Smith will give opposition forward lines nightmares for years to come. The midfield is going to be hardest hit, especially with the fact that Adelaide ranked second last for disposal efficiency (70%) in 2015. Don Pyke is counting on getting the ball into the forward line as quickly as possible and letting his forwards do the rest. It will be exciting, break-neck football that will challenge the best. Dangerfield is undeniably a loss, but Pyke will be hoping, in fact banking on, the system covering his absence.

Against – The loss of Dangerfield is too great to cover

Patrick Dangerfield is one of the game’s most elite players. Averaging 27 disposals a game, Dangerfield also contributed 21 goals last season and averaged 1.1 score assist a game. Added to this is his ability to find the ball in congestion, ranking third for contested possession (15.2 per game) and seventh for clearances (7.1 per game), Dangerfield is a freak. The Crows may have recruited strongly in the off season with the inclusions of Troy Menzel, Paul Seedsman, Curtly Hampton and Dean Gore but all four players have not proven to have the potential of Dangerfield. Paul Seedsman is likely to replace Dangerfield in the midfield but he is more of an outside player, with only 25.4% of his possessions being contested. The Crouch brothers are the likeliest to cover the loss of Dangerfield but Brad has already been reprimanded for failing team standards, while Matt has not had shown any consistency at AFL level.

This will be a year the Crows will have to rebuild their midfield to move forward in the years to come.

Brisbane

Ins:

Ryan Bastinac (North Melbourne), Tom Bell (Carlton), Jarred Jansen (Geelong), Josh Walker (Geelong), Josh Schache (2015 Draft: Pick 2)

Outs:

James Aish (Collingwood), Jack Redden (West Coast) Matthew Leuenberger (Essendon), Jed Adcock (Delisted)

Last year:

H/A – 17th Position (4 wins, 18 losses)

Best & Fairest – Dayne Beams, Stefan Martin, Mitch Robinson, Dayne Zorko

Leading goal scorer – Joshua Green (25 goals)

Big Question:

Will Brisbane return as the Kings of Queensland?

For – They will finish ahead of the Gold Coast

It is a crucial period in the history of the Brisbane Football Club. For too long now the club has been in the football wilderness, failing to make finals and failing to entice fans to attend games. The Lions are just as important for the Queensland market as Sydney is for New South Wales. And with the Gold Coast also in the bottom threshold of the ladder, Queensland needs a team to improve. Thankfully Brisbane is on the up. After years of not being able to hold onto young promising players, Brisbane now have a core group to build a list around. The Lions have the youngest list in the competition, with only one player over the age of 30. Captain Tom Rockliff is only 26 and with the aid of Daniel Rich, Dayne Beams, Dayne Zorko and Mitch Robinson, the Lions have an impressive midfield group, which should improve their contested possession differential, losing the count by -10.3 per game. Tall forward, Josh Schache will be key to the future of the Lions and will take time to develop and support from Josh Walker, who has shown he can be a handful up forward.

Because the Suns are also a poor side, it won’t be difficult for the Lions to finish higher on the ladder. Six to eight wins this season should do the job.

Against – They will again succumb to the heat of the Suns

The state of football in Queensland will once again be a major issue for the AFL in 2016. Brisbane is undergoing a tedious rebuild and the Suns are staring down the barrel of there first rebuild only five years after entering the competition. However, Brisbane will struggle to compete with Gold Coast’s raw talent for the immediate future and will once again play second fiddle to the Suns.

Brisbane has the youngest and most inexperienced list in the AFL. Their top tier-talent, such as Rockliff and Hanley, have both struggled with injuries in recent years and their ability to generate a winning score is shaky at best. Joshua Green has led their goal-kicking for the past two seasons, which not taking away from his talents, is an embarrassing statistic for Lion forwards. The likes of Schache and McStay will provide Lion’s fans with hope for the future, but for the here and now there is a clear lack of scoring power.

With the return of Ablett, Gold Coast looks likely to jump up to around the 8-win mark, which Brisbane is still a few seasons away from reaching.

Carlton

Ins:

Daniel Gorringe (Gold Coast), Sam Kerridge (Adelaide), Jed Lamb (GWS), Jacob Weitering (2015 Draft: Pick 1)

Outs:

Tom Bell (Brisbane), Lachie Henderson (Geelong), Troy Menzel (Adelaide), Chris Yarran (Richmond)

Last year:

H/A – 18th Position (4 wins, 18 losses)

Best & Fairest – Patrick Cripps

Leading goal scorer – Andrejs Everitt (31 goals)

Big Question:

Is this the first step in the creation of a Carlton dynasty?

For – This team will lead Carlton to a premiership

Carlton’s path to rebuild has reminded me of Richmond when they appointed Damian Hardwick in 2009. Both sides selected a coach from the reigning premiers, Hawthorn to lead the rebuild and both coaches quickly stamped the imprint on the club by shelving the dead wood and heavily relying on the national draft.

Though Richmond have not won a premiership yet they are on the right path and that’s what will give Carlton hope.

The Blues have targeted their big man department in last years draft, recruiting Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Jack Silvagni. These four players will take time to develop but Carlton know this is a long term rebuild.

The results will be ugly this season. Last year the Blues conceded 107 points a game, while only managing to score 69.3 points on average, the lowest in the league.

Everyone expects Carlton to finish bottom four once again this season. But is that really a bad result? Another poor season will enable the Blues to again select the best young talent in Australia, that will help them return to the top of the tree.

So strap yourselves in Carlton supporters, because the seeds for success have already been planted.

Against – Carlton will continue to struggle in the years to come

Carlton have the raw core of a team on the way back up the ladder. The likes of Weitering and Cripps will provide Blues fans with glimpses of hope for years to come, however the rise up the ladder is not imminent for Carlton.

2015 was a disastrous year for Carlton, they sacked their coach, finished dead last and played devoid of spirit and fight. Brendon Bolton is an inspired choice for coach, however he doesn’t have the personal he had at Hawthorn to work with. The Blues lack structure on the field, they lack leadership and they lack attacking prowess. Casboult is an exceptional mark, however lacks the kicking ability and Walker has not been able to find his best form in recent years. This leaves Andrejs Everitt as their leading goal scorer (team high 31 goals in 2015), which is not sustainable moving forward.

The Blues have managed to put together a few pieces of the puzzle in rebuilding this broken club, however their road back to premiership contention is a long and windy one. Blues fans are unfortunately in for more of the same in 2016 and for the foreseeable future.

Collingwood

Ins:

James Aish (Brisbane), Jeremy Howe (Melbourne), Adam Treloar (GWS)

Outs:

Nathan Freeman (St Kilda), Ben Kennedy (Melbourne), Paul Seedsman (Adelaide)

Last year:

H/A – 12th Position (10 wins, 12 losses)

Best & Fairest – Scott Pendlebury

Leading goal scorer – Jamie Elliott (35 goals)

Big Question:

Is it a failed season if Collingwood miss the finals again in 2016?

For – After starting 8-3 for two consecutive seasons and fading late, Buckley’s men must make finals in 2016?

While the 2016 season is not a case of make or break for the Magpies, there is a justified level of pressure on Buckley’s men ahead of the coming season. After getting off to 8-3 starts in 2014 and 2015 they have fallen away in the second half of both seasons. The excuse of youth, inexperience and injuries is wearing thin, it’s time for the Magpies to stand up.

Collingwood has openly stated that this teams premiership window is 2017-2019, however going into that window without any finals experience for the majority of the squad is a concerning issue.

There are no excuses on the quality of the Magpies list. They have a stellar midfield, arguably one of the best collection of under 22 year olds in the game and a superstar in Scott Pendlebury. They have shown in previous years they can match it with the best, only falling one or two goals short of the likes of Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney last year.

The Pies have shown the faith in Buckley, who recently received a contract extension, however it is crucial the Pies and Buckley make an appearance in September this year. The Collingwood faithful need to see the development the club has boasted of, as well as providing crucial finals experience to the young players who will carry this team for years to come.

Against – Collingwood’s development does not necessarily mean finals in 2016?

When Buckley took the reigns from Malthouse, it was clear that significant change was looming at Collingwood. Out with the rat-pack and in with the elite youth, as the Pies traded experience for young, uncapped talent. At their best, the Pies have shown they can match it with the competition elite, but they are yet to show the consistency required for finals footy.

The Pies have all the pieces for long-term success. Darcy Moore has the makings of a superstar, the mid-field is stock full with A grade talent and the defence is young but developing quickly. They have shown an increased focus on quick ball-movement throughout the NAB Challenge, although still struggle clearing the ball from their defensive fifty.

Collingwood could play finals in 2016, in fact some believe they could do more than just make up the numbers. However, from the outset the coming season looks incredibly even, with twelve teams genuinely fighting for top eight spots.

Buckley’s men are still one or two seasons away from fully realising their potential, and with the logjam of talent fighting for finals this year, it would not be a failure of a season if the Pies sit out September once again.

Essendon

Ins:

Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane), Craig Bird (Sydney), Darcy Parish (2015 Draft: Pick 5), James Kelly, Matthew Stokes, Matt Dea, James Polkinghorne, Ryan Crowley, Jonathon Simpkin, Mark Jamar, Sam Grimley, Nathan Grima (Top up players)

Outs:

Jake Carlisle (St Kilda), Jonathan Giles (West Coast), Jake Melksham (Melbourne), Tom Bellchambers, Travis Colyer, Dyson Heppell, Michael Hibberd, Heath Hocking, Cale Hooker, Ben Howlett, Michael Hurley, David Myers, Tayte Pears, Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson (12 month ban)

Last year:

H/A – 15th Position (6 wins, 16 losses)

Best & Fairest – Cale Hooker

Leading goal scorer – Joe Daniher (34 goals)

Big Question:

Will Essendon be the first team in the AFL era to complete a winless season?

For – Essendon will be the first team in AFL history to go the season winless

Essendon’s 2016 season is in shambles before it even begins. The list has been gutted by the WADA ban, leaving Essendon with a bare-bones squad which will most likely struggle for form and consistency.

Forget inexperience in the midfield and gaping holes in the defensive line, Essendon’s greatest issue lies in their forward line. Last season the Bombers only managed an average of 72 points a game, its lowest points average since 1956. Upon entering the forward 50 they generated a score only 42% of the time, the worst in the AFL. Take away their elite ball users, such as Watson and Heppell, and scoring will become significantly harder. This year will be a true test for Joe Daniher, who will be asked to lead the forward line and handle the bulk of the scoring load.

The last team to go an entire season winless was Fitzroy in 1964. Worsfold has his work cut out to save the Bombers from entering the record books for all the wrong reasons.

Against – Essendon will find a way to avoid a winless season

Let’s put it in perspective, no team has gone winless for an entire season since Fitzroy in 1964. Even the 1996 Fitzroy side and the St Kilda and Melbourne of the late seventies, early eighties won at least one game. The reality is Essendon have a poor team this season but it is infallible to believe they will not win a game this season. Essendon supporters looking for inspiration can look no further than Melbourne in 2012. In the 2012, Melbourne lost the first nine games of the season by an average margin of 57 points. In round ten they upset Essendon, who had won eight of their first nine matches. If Essendon are going to win a game however they will be relying on Joe Daniher to perform. Daniher is the one threat in the Essendon attack but he will also need some assistance from the other big men. Sam Grimley has shown in the NAB Challenge he can take a strong mark but will need to improve his kicking.

It will be a difficult season for Essendon but expect them to win at least one game this season.

Fremantle

Ins:

Harley Bennell (Gold Coast)

Outs:

Ryan Crowley (delisted), Luke McPharlin (retired)

Last year:

H/A – 1st Position (17 wins, 5 losses) Finals – 3rd Position (1 win, 1 loss)

Best & Fairest – Aaron Sandilands

Leading goal scorer – Michael Walters (44 goals)

Big Question:

Can Fremantle taste the ultimate success with the defensive-minded Ross Lyon at the helm?

For – Ross Lyon can lead the Dockers to their first flag

Can defence win a Grand Final? Well, looking at the NFL it certainly can. The Denver Broncos won this year’s Super Bowl with the best defence in the competition, defeating the Carolina Panthers, who had the best offence. Ross Lyon will look at this and continue to have faith in his philosophy. Fremantle are a consistent side finishing in the top four for three consecutive years under Ross Lyon. In the 2013 Grand Final, inaccuracy prevented them from winning their maiden Premiership, but since then they have failed to reach the Grand Final. Last year saw a change in the Ross Lyon philosophy. For the first nine weeks when the Dockers were undefeated they averaged 94 points per game, the sixth highest in the competition at the time. As performances began to slide, the Dockers scoring reduced to end at an average of 84.4 a game. Though the Dockers attack varied, their defence remained resolute, having the second best defence in the competition (71.1 points against). Fremantle’s stingy defence allowed them to end the season on top of the ladder.

But will defence lead to a premiership for the Dockers? Of Course it can. The issue facing Fremantle is their inability to score from turnovers. Fremantle were 15th in the competition for scores from turnovers, averaging 44.1 points. If they can improve this area of their game and continue to defend well than they can win this year’s premiership.

Against – Fremantle will never be premiers under the defensive-minded Lyon

Ross Lyon is a historically stubborn coach. His philosophy is rooted in a defensive heavy game-plan, which has ultimately fallen short against the offensive powerhouses of the competition.

In his time at the helm of the Docker’s, Lyon has led Fremantle to twenty final appearances. His side has conceded 100 points only three out of the twenty finals, which is the perfect platform for September success. Unfortunately, in those twenty finals the Docker’s have only scored over 100 once. Lyon’s defensive game-plan may work throughout the home and away season, however when it comes to Grand Finals against powerhouses such as Hawthorn, the system crumbles.

If Fremantle is to win a flag under Lyon they must adopt a more aggressive, attacking game style. Scoring 85-90 points in a Grand Final against a Hawthorn style team just won’t hold up, no matter the defensive pressure. The clock is ticking for the Dockers, who enter the 2016 season as the oldest team in the AFL, and the pressure is squarely on Lyon’s shoulders.

Geelong

Ins:

Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide), Lachie Henderson (Carlton), Scott Selwood (West Coast), Zac Smith (Gold Coast)

Outs:

Dean Gore (Adelaide), Jarred Jansen (Brisbane), Dawson Simpson (GWS), Steve Johnson (GWS), Josh Walker (Brisbane), James Kelly (retired – Essendon), Jared Rivers (retired), Matthew Stokes (retired – Essendon)

Last year:

H/A – 10th Position (11 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw)

Best & Fairest – Mark Blicavs

Leading goal scorer – Tom Hawkins (46 goals)

Big Question:

With their offseason recruits will Geelong bounce back into premiership contention, or are there unrealistic expectations on the 2016 Cats?

For – The expectation for the 2016 Cats is unrealistic  

In 2015 Geelong missed the finals for the first time since 2006, which would normally signal the beginning of a rebuild. However, the Cats have seemingly skipped the rebuild phase with numerous off-season acquisitions.

The additions of Dangerfield, Henderson and Zac Smith are undoubtedly great additions to any list, however it does not necessarily correlate with an immediate jump back up the ladder. Dangerfield will significantly assist Geelong in the critical clearance area, which they were league worst in 2015. However, as Hawthorn has showed it is team over individual that brings ultimate success, and Dangerfield will not be sole solution to Geelong’s issues.

Geelong will most likely rise up the ladder once again in 2016. They will most likely make finals and could possibly send a scare through the top four. However, there is more water that must go under the bridge before Geelong are true premiership contenders again. And not even Patrick Dangerfield can change that.

Against – The Cats will find themselves back in September action once again

2016 will be a year of change in the AFL. As the gap between teams continues to reduce, Geelong has done everything possible to return to finals action and emerge as a premiership contender. A ruthless trade period saw the Cats snare players who will automatically make the side better. Patrick Dangerfield is arguably the game’s best player and has already shown his value in the NAB Challenge. Lachie Henderson will be a handy acquisition to the Cats defence while Zac Smith is an upgrade on Dawson Simpson and Hamish McIntosh. Last season saw the end of the Cat’s era but allowed them to test some of their youth. Jackson Thurlow, Darcy Lang, Nakia Cockatoo, Jake Kolodjashnij and Cory Gregson showed they have potential to become top class, while Josh Caddy finally showed signs of being a star in the competition.

Apart from Hawthorn, who are in a league of their own, all teams bar last years bottom four have a chance of making the finals this year. If Geelong can manage to scrape in and potentially finish top four then they certainly can win this year’s premiership.

Gold Coast

Ins:

Daniel Currie (North Melbourne), Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs), Matt Rosa (West Coast), Callum Ah Chee (2015 Draft: Pick 8)

Outs:

Harley Bennell (Fremantle), Charlie Dixon (Port Adelaide), Zac Smith (Geelong)

Last year:

H/A – 16th Position (4 wins, 17 losses, 1 draw)

Best & Fairest – Tom Lynch

Leading goal scorer – Tom Lynch (43 goals)

Big Question:

Will the return of Ablett correlate with a rise up the ladder, or is it more of the same for Gold Coast in 2016?

For – Gold Coast will continue to struggle in season 2016

A horrendous year ended with a disappointing trade window, which saw the Suns lose Harley Bennell and Charlie Dixon. Gold Coast have to start performing if they are going to have any significance in a market not accepting of sport teams. The Suns are in a rebuild, five season after they entered the competition. Rebuilding for a second time will not increase supporters expectations on an improved season. The list looks devoid of leadership, with Gary Ablett and Michael Rischitelli the only two leaders in the team. Nick Malceski has been a failure and seems to only care about his retirement fund.

The Suns season rests in the hands of the little master. Ablett must play an entire season if they are going to prevent finishing in the bottom four. The return of Ablett would also be a boost for players like Aaron Hall, Jack Martin, Touk Miller and Callum Ah Chee, who will feel a foot taller. Attacking wise, the Suns need to find an option outside of Tom Lynch. Sam Day has had numerous opportunities but has failed to impress.

If Ablett can play an entire season then the Suns may improve, but it appears difficult as the talent around him does not seem capable of improving.

Against – The return of Gaz will spark the Sun’s into action

The fate of Gold Coast season and future lies solely on one mans shoulders. Ablett is the life-blood of the Suns and history has shown that his performance directly correlates with the team’s performance.

Under Ablett is an elite crop of young talent, who with the correct leadership can blossom into excellent players. The likes of Lynch, Prestia, Saad, Hall, O’Meara and Kolodjashnij will carry this team for years to come, however much of their talent is being wasted sitting on the pine recovering from injury.

If Eade can get his best team on the park every week Gold Coast is a team to be feared. The Suns desperately need on-field, off-field leadership and a healthy Ablett to succeed, if they can achieve that the future is bright.

Greater Western Sydney

Ins:

Steve Johnson (Geelong), Dawson Simpson (Geelong), Jacob Hopper (2015 Draft: Pick 7)

Outs:

Tomas Bugg (Melbourne), Curtly Hampton (Adelaide), Jed Lamb (Carlton), Jacob Townsend (Richmond), Adam Treloar (Collingwood)

Last year:

H/A – 11th Position (11 wins, 11 losses)

Best & Fairest – Heath Shaw

Leading goal scorer – Jeremy Cameron (63 goals)

Big Question:

Will GWS make the finals in season 2016?

For – GWS will take a giant leap into September

The Giants are on track to beat the Suns to September, and with their developing list the Giants could become September regulars for years to come.

GWS has a list the envy of any team competition wide, a perfect mix of developing talent and mature elite players guiding the team forward. The Giants play an exciting brand of football and look to catch defensive units off-guard by lightning ball-movement up the ground.

The loss of Treloar will hurt the Giants, although there is ample young talent to replace his position. A more pressing issue for the Giants is the health of Shane Mumford, who has already seen an injury scare throughout the NAB Challenge. Mumford is undeniably the Giants most important player, as seen through his injury affected season last year. The Giants won 7 of the 11 games Mumford played last year and only 4 out of 11 without him. He is a vital cog in their team and must stay fit to see the Giants playing in September.

If injuries go the Giants way, and Stevie J can co-exist with Jeremy Cameron and the Giants forward line, then GWS are on the way to their first finals appearance.

Against – Still not ready to play finals

GWS will push to make their first finals series this season. After a 7-3 start to the season, the Giants won only four games for the season. The drop in form occurred at the same time Shane Mumford injured himself. No matter how many star midfielders the Giants have their most important player is Mumford. The Giant ruckman is a leader who controls the game but can he stay fit is the question. Any other year and the Giants would probably play finals. But this year with the competition so even, a single slip up could cost a team a top eight finish.

The Giants midfield is strong but they will miss the class of Adam Treloar. On paper a stockpile of tall forwards looks impressive, but the questions still hover over Jonathon Patton’s ability to stay fit, while Cam McCarthy may not play this year and Jeremy Cameron is suspended for the first four games of the season.

Down back is where the Giants look vulnerable. Phil Davis has had a horror run with injuries and Joel Patfull will be 32 later this year.

The Giants will make the finals in the coming years but don’t expect them to make it this year.

Written by Daniel Freeman and Christopher Chrysostomou

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